Indonesia Must Lead the Global South in the Age of AI and Geopolitical Fragmentation

By Teguh Anantawikrama*

WartaPesona.com - The world is entering a period of profound transformation. The old assumptions that shaped globalization over the past three decades are rapidly fading. Artificial intelligence is redefining productivity, climate change is reshaping economic geography, geopolitical rivalry is fragmenting supply chains, and demographic shifts are altering the foundations of labor markets.

According to BMI's Towards 2050: Megatrends in Industry, Politics and the Global Economy 2026 Edition, AI and automation have emerged as the single most disruptive force across all industries and economies through 2050, surpassing even climate change and geopolitical risk in their breadth of impact.

For Indonesia, these developments present not only challenges but a historic opportunity.

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The rise of the Global South is changing the global balance of power. Emerging and developing economies account for nearly 60% of global GDP measured by purchasing power parity, while the expanded BRICS grouping represents approximately 46% of the world's population and more than one-third of global economic output.

Indonesia possesses a combination of strengths unmatched by most emerging economies: a population of approximately 285 million people, the largest economy in Southeast Asia with GDP exceeding USD 1.5 trillion, abundant critical minerals, and a strategic geopolitical position bridging East and West.

The age of AI demands a new development strategy. Indonesia should democratize AI adoption across MSMEs, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, education, and public services. AI must become a productivity multiplier for all Indonesians, not merely a tool for large corporations.

Indonesia must also transform from a resource exporter into a value-creation nation. Nickel should lead to batteries, batteries should lead to electric vehicles, and electric vehicles should lead to advanced manufacturing ecosystems.

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At the same time, the global supply chain is shifting from efficiency toward resilience. Indonesia sits at the crossroads of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, with nearly 40% of global maritime trade passing through its waters. This creates an opportunity to become a manufacturing, logistics, digital, and energy hub for the Indo-Pacific.

Climate leadership should be viewed as an economic opportunity rather than merely an environmental obligation. Indonesia possesses the world's largest mangrove ecosystem, one of the largest tropical forest resources, and approximately 40% of global geothermal potential.

The future international system will be multipolar. Indonesia's strength lies not in choosing sides but in building bridges. Through ASEAN, BRICS, G20, OIC, and broader South-South cooperation, Indonesia can emerge as a strategic connector between developed and developing economies.

Indonesia has the population, resources, geography, diplomatic credibility, and economic potential to become one of the leading powers of the Global South. If we successfully combine artificial intelligence, industrial transformation, climate resilience, talent development, and strategic diplomacy, Indonesia will not merely benefit from the megatrends of 2050. Indonesia will help define them.***

*Teguh Anantawikrama ialah Wakil Ketua Umum KADIN Indonesia

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